Violent attacks linked to jihadist groups tied to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have surged sharply across the frontier regions of Nigeria, Benin and Niger in 2025, according to a new analysis by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED).
The ACLED report shows that when figures from 2024 and 2025 were compared, fatalities related to militant violence in the shared tri-border zone jumped by 262 percent, underscoring a rapid deterioration in regional security that has drawn international concern.
The rise in violence was most pronounced in northern and northwestern Nigeria—including Sokoto, Kebbi, Niger and Kwara statesas well as across border departments in Benin and Niger, where jihadist groups have increasingly carried out incursions, ambushes and deadly raids.
ACLED’s senior West Africa analyst, Héni Nsaibia, noted that extremist groups have broadened their geographical footprint, adopting more visible communication and operational tactics as they vie for influence in previously quieter frontier areas.
The report attributes the escalation to factors including fragile state presence, porous borders, and weak cross-border cooperation, partly linked to weakened regional security coordination among Sahelian states affected by internal political crises.
The findings reflect broader trends of rising jihadist activity across West Africa, with militant networks exploiting governance gaps and expanding into new theatres beyond their traditional strongholds.
