Presidential race officially begins Wednesday with Tinubu seeking second term amid soaring inflation and violent unrest
Campaigning officially kicks off in Nigeria on Wednesday, launching a five-month sprint to presidential elections that will be defined by the country’s crushing cost-of-living crisis and President Bola Tinubu’s controversial economic overhauls.
Africa’s most populous nation—home to over 200 million people—is buckling under years of economic turmoil and spiraling violence from armed groups. Yet a fractured opposition may prove to be Tinubu’s greatest advantage as he seeks a second term in office.
“The economy is the biggest issue. That’s the one thing that cuts across different parts of the country, and it continues to affect security and development concerns,” said Afolabi Adekaiyaoja, author of The Bellwether, a Nigerian politics newsletter.
Since taking office in 2023, Tinubu has pushed through ambitious reforms, most notably ending a costly fuel subsidy that had long kept consumer prices artificially low. While economists and international investors have applauded the changes, they have triggered a devastating cost-of-living crisis—the naira has plummeted in value and inflation surged to 34 percent before cooling slightly to 15.4 percent in July.
The slide into poverty, which predates Tinubu’s presidency, has accelerated. More than 60 percent of Nigerians now live below the poverty line, according to the World Bank—up sharply from 40 percent in 2019.
Security Crisis Deepens
Beyond the economic turmoil, Nigeria remains entangled in multiple security emergencies: jihadist insurgencies, non-ideological “bandit” gangs, deadly farmer-herder conflicts over land, and a simmering separatist movement.
Violence has escalated since 2024, said Ladd Serwat, senior Africa analyst at conflict monitor ACLED, “driven by the spread and intensification of armed banditry across northern and central Nigeria” and intensified conflict in Borno state, the heart of the jihadist insurgency.
Opposition in Disarray
The fragmented opposition has struggled to present a compelling alternative to Tinubu’s policies.
“The opposition has been too mired in internal and legal issues to really articulate a difference,” Adekaiyaoja said.
The 2026 race shapes up as a rematch of 2023, when Tinubu won with just 36.6 percent of the vote. His main challengers—Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party—are running again, this time with a twist: Rabiu Kwankwaso, who captured roughly six percent last time, has joined Obi as his running mate.
“The most important issues for me are the economy and cost of living,” said Afolayan Abdullahi, a 42-year-old civil servant, who said he plans to vote for Tinubu.
Voter Apathy Looms
But many Nigerians are disillusioned. Turnout in 2023 was a paltry 27 percent, and voters face daunting obstacles.
“Nigeria is not safe—terrorists, kidnappers, bandits everywhere,” said Becky Alegbe, a 28-year-old street vendor in Abuja. Registered to vote in her home village in Edo state, she has no plans to travel: “For me to take the risk to travel… I will not take that.”
With transportation costs quintupled and vote-buying scandals haunting previous elections, voter engagement remains a critical unknown as the campaigns officially begin.
