In a no-holds-barred interview that has sent shockwaves through Nigeria’s political establishment, former SGF Babachir Lawal has drawn the battle lines for 2027—and he’s not pulling any punches.
His verdict? The opposition’s only winning move is a blockbuster alliance between Labour Party’s Peter Obi and NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso. Anything less, he warns, is “disaster.”
The Lawal Scorecard (and it’s brutal):
· Obi-Kwankwaso Joint Ticket: A whopping 70% —”They’ll balance competence, fairness, and regional reach,” Lawal declared.
· Bola Tinubu (incumbent): A shaky 50% —vulnerable, but not out.
· Atiku Abubakar: A humiliating ZERO. “Definitely, Atiku will lose. He will, and I pray he loses. I’m not the only one, and he will lose,” Lawal fired, leaving no room for misinterpretation.
The former SGF didn’t mince words about why the Obi-Kwankwaso pairing is the golden ticket. According to him, Obi brings credibility, fiscal discipline, and a youth-driven movement that cuts across ethnic lines, while Kwankwaso offers entrenched Northern grassroots machinery and a formidable political structure in Kano and beyond. Together, he argues, they neutralize the regional liabilities that doom each of them when running solo.
“Peter Obi will try to be fair to everybody. Peter Obi will try to do that which is right,” Lawal emphasized, framing the former Anambra governor as a reformist with a conscience. But he was equally clear that Obi alone cannot break the Northern electoral fortress—hence the urgent need for the Kwankwaso marriage.
Lawal’s blistering assessment also takes a swipe at the ruling APC’s prospects, suggesting that Tinubu’s 50% rating reflects growing discontent over the economy, insecurity, and mounting public frustration. However, he stopped short of writing off the President entirely unlike Atiku, whom he essentially dismissed as a perennial also-ran.
Political analysts are already dissecting Lawal’s remarks as more than just personal opinion. Some see it as a calculated signal from influential northern elites who are quietly shopping for a united opposition front capable of unseating the APC in 2027. Others view it as a desperate gambit to consolidate fragmented votes against a ruling party that, despite its challenges, still commands significant institutional advantage.
What’s undeniable is that Lawal has thrown down the gauntlet. By publicly assigning numerical probabilities—70, 50, and a crushing zero—he’s forced both the opposition camps and the ruling party to confront the mathematics of a three-horse race. His message is clear: divide and lose, or unite and conquer.
With less than two years to go before Nigerians head to the polls, the question now is whether Obi and Kwankwaso—who have danced around each other’s political orbits for months will heed this call or let ego trump strategy. If they don’t, Lawal warns, they’ll hand victory to Tinubu on a silver platter.
One thing is certain: the 2027 race just got a whole lot more interesting—and a whole lot more personal.
