Nigeria has set an ambitious target to refine all its crude oil locally by 2030, ending decades of exporting raw crude and importing refined products, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has said.
The country currently produces 1.74 million barrels of crude per day and aims to hit 3 million daily by the end of the decade. With domestic refining capacity now at about 1.12 million bpd, authorities say the goal is within reach—especially with the Dangote refinery leading the charge.
“We want to end the pattern where much of the country’s crude is exported and refined products imported,” said Rabiu Umar, NMDPRA chief executive. “We are engaging the upstream commission to ensure that every molecule of our 3 million b/d is refined locally.”
The Dangote refinery, which already supplies up to 90 percent of Nigeria’s refined products, plans to double its capacity to 1.4 million bpd. However, securing reliable crude supply has been a challenge, forcing the refinery to look abroad at times.
To fix this, the NMDPRA is working with the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) to enforce domestic crude supply obligations under the Petroleum Industry Act. The law requires producers to allocate a percentage of their output for local refineries.
NUPRC data shows that 53.7 million barrels were supplied to domestic refiners in Q2 2026, with 52.6 million going to Dangote. Still, the refinery was offered 68.1 million barrels—meaning supply fell short of what was available.
The upstream regulator blamed the gap on pricing disagreements between producers and refiners. Talks are ongoing with the NMDPRA and Ministry of Finance to resolve the issues and ensure full compliance.
If successful, Nigeria’s shift from crude exporter to refined-product powerhouse could transform its economy and energy landscape forever.
